Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums


In my view, the biggest problem with ratings agencies is not that they are biased, but that they take too long to adjust ratings to changes in a country and that they sometimes underrate or overrate regions of the world, because of their histories. Consequently, Latin American countries have to work harder to improve their ratings, or sustain current ratings, than the US or European countries, which get a bye, because they do not have a history of default. Note that while countries are less likely to default on local currency than foreign currency bonds, the default rates in the former remain substantial. In addition, the good news, if you are a user of sovereign ratings, is that they clearly are correlated strongly with ratings, with higher default rates for lower-rated sovereigns. With the long lead in on the dimensions of country risk, we can now turn to the more practical question of how to convert these different components of risk into country risk measures. We will start with a limited measure of the risk of default on the part of governments, i.e., sovereign default risk, before expanding that measure to consider other country risks, in political risk scores.

Job growth has remained healthy, with US unemployment under 4 percent late last year, while the Eurozone hit historic lows of around 6.5 percent. Consumer spending has also remained robust globally, with US retail sales rising at an annual rate of about 4 percent from a year earlier. This improving picture has buoyed economists’ hopes of a soft landing for the US economy—a sentiment equity risk premium india shared by many investors who boosted stock market returns at the end of the year. You will notice that there are countries that are not rated (NR) that have equity risk premiums attached to them. For these frontier markets, I used the PRS score for the country as a starting point, found other (rated) countries with similar PRS scores, and extrapolated an equity risk premium.

We ended the year with analyst consensus of about 5 percent growth in revenue for the year ahead, with gains in EBITDA and net earnings of around 8 to 9 percent—a bounty that will not land evenly across industries, they believe (see “Who drove the returns in 2023?”). Although inflation fears have been receding, concern about geopolitical instability is on the rise. For example, late last year, 67 percent of respondents to a McKinsey survey cited geopolitical concerns as the top threat to global economic growth in 2024—the largest share identifying this as a top risk since shortly after the war in Ukraine began.

  1. Equity risk premium refers to an excess return that investing in the stock market provides over a risk-free rate.
  2. This makes investing in stocks more enticing; however, since the equity risk premium is based on historical data, the returns are not guaranteed.
  3. Furthermore, all of these risk exposures are dynamic, and change over time, as governments change, violence from internal or external forces flares up.
  4. While we live in dynamic times, several factors point to a more favorable macroeconomic environment at this writing.
  5. And the performance gap between programmatic acquirers and companies pursuing organic growth only widened during the COVID-19 years.

During the global financial crisis of 2008, the sharp spike in ERP translated into higher cost of equity/required return on equity even as risk-free rates were declining (Chart 2). The subsequent policy actions in the form of monetary and fiscal stimulus aided in lowering of risk premia and the cost of equity. Thereafter, the decline in cost of equity is attributable to easing of policy rates by the Reserve Bank amidst low inflation environment and reduction in risk-free rate. However, escalating coronavirus induced stress during 2020 pushed ERP higher and consequently resulted in higher cost of equity. The subsequent policy actions lowered interest rates and led to easing of ERP, helping to bring down cost of equity from elevated levels.

India to become 3rd largest economy by 2027, market cap to hit $10 trn by 2030: Jefferies

Further, monetary policy transmission also takes place through financial channel, which eventually influences the real sector. The immediate impact of monetary policy actions is mirrored in the prices and returns of financial assets, which is transmitted to broader economy through resultant actions of economic agents including households and firms. Unlike other lagging macroeconomic indicators including GDP and inflation, these variables are available on continuous basis and are also not subject to revisions, and hence can be used for real-time monitoring of macroeconomic conditions. Is a sovereign CDS spread a better measure of default risk than a sovereign rating? My suggestion is that for countries where recent political or economic events would lead you to believe that sovereign rating is dated, you should switch to using sovereign CDS spreads.

Testing International Asset Pricing Models Using Implied Costs of Capital

Since we can observe stock market booms and busts in the past, this drawback is not insignificant. The BAA Corporate Bond Spread is available on Fred and it gives you an exact number for the risk premium which BAA bonds are getting. Now if we get 3% as India’s Country Risk premium and 5% as the US ERP then India’s Equity risk premium will be 8%.

For three decades, I have wrestled with measuring this additional risk exposure and converting that measurement into an equity risk premium, but it remains a work in progress. Against this backdrop, this article attempts to decompose equity price movements in India since 2005 to 2020 into contribution of changes in growth expectations, interest rates and Equity Risk Premium (ERP) using DDM. Section III discusses the DDM framework and the specification of the model deployed for the study. For example, our latest analysis of the “Global 2,000”—the world’s largest global public companies—found that those making more than two small to midsized deals annually over ten years through 2022 delivered a median excess total shareholder return (TSR) of 2.3 percent. This programmatic approach outperformed all other M&A strategies, including organic growth, which actually destroyed value in the same period. Programmatic acquirers are not just acquisitive; they also actively divest nonstrategic assets.

We offer perspectives on some of the critical issues likely to influence performance in a variety of sectors as well as insights on issues of central importance to leaders. While the global aggregate value for 2022 is very similar to the value in 2021, there has been a significant drop off since 2016, at least according to this measure. In 2022, North America and Western Europe scored highest on the democracy index, and Middle East and Africa scored the lowest. In this issue, we have expanded the coverage of historical ERP to both Sensex and NIFTY50 indices. A detailed cross-section of the value of ERP is presented in this report, allowing a user to choose the time frame as deemed appropriate.

‘Equity risk premium of Indian markets is near historic lows’

However, the relationship weakened somewhat during 2018, which can plausibly be attributed to the asymmetric impact of default on its debt obligations by Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) on corporate bond market. Required return on equity can be computed using the model by incorporating the current price, which is observable, free cash flow to equity and long-term stable growth rate that are estimable. In our DDM framework, the value of equity benchmark Sensex is considered as representative price of Indian equities. Expected FCFE is assumed to be 60 per cent of expected net profits of constituent Sensex companies, which are derived using consensus forward earnings estimates of equity analysts for a three-year period (high growth phase) available on Bloomberg. Terminal growth rate is assumed to be equivalent to 10-year G-sec rate, which is also considered to be the risk-free rate.

The higher weights in global indices are also important from the crowding-in of foreign capital from multiple discretionary funds as well. A rise in country weight in a global fund could make Indian stocks a must-have for a much more diverse set of equity investors, beyond just the EM-focused ones, it said. Conversely, the regions (Africa, large portions of Asia and Latin America) that are least democratic, with the most violence and corruption, have the most porous legal systems. Dison, Will and Rattan, Alex (2017), “An improved model for understanding equity prices,” Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. We expect robust dealmaking in APAC in the years to come as multinationals headquartered in slower-growing regions look for opportunities to scale up, consolidate operations, diversify, and advance decarbonization and sustainability initiatives.

Assessment of equity prices may also help to identify financial imbalances or risks in an economy as it contains information about the degree of uncertainty around the economic outlook. The analysis of equity prices and understanding of the drivers of change in equity prices assumes significance as it interacts with monetary policy and could have different implications for policy actions. This occurs when the returns expected from stock market investments are below the risk-free rate.

Understanding Equity Risk Premium

It is worth noting that using the sovereign CDS spread for India of 1.42% would have resulted in a lower equity risk premium for India, at 7.02%. Continuing COVID-19 crisis has weakened a broad-based immediate recovery, and the economy’s outlook in the near term remains fragile. However, with a sharp recovery in the market, the investor return expectations have rebounded to previous levels. Accordingly, based on the current market conditions, we recommend India ERP of 7.5% ( 7% and 8% being the lower and upper limit of the range, respectively) beginning April 2021. 1 Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is the amount of cash a business generates that is available to be potentially distributed to shareholders. In other words, FCFE is the cash left over after taxes, re-investment needs and debt repayments.

In this equation, P0 is the current equity price, D1, D2, D3, …,Dn are the expected dividend payouts by companies to shareholders in periods 1, 2, 3 up to n, and ke is the cost of equity or expected return on equity. Strikingly, programmatic dealmakers with the most deals earned the highest returns. And the performance gap between programmatic acquirers and companies pursuing organic growth only widened during the COVID-19 years. Programmatic acquirers achieved 3.9 percent excess TSR in the past decade, up from 2.9 percent in the 2010s.